Merry Christmas!

Some of you reading this might not understand that an out-of-control train just passed you by and it could have destroyed everything that you know and love.  The Omicron variant of the Coronavirus is anywhere from five to seventy times as contagious as any of the other variants (the difference in contagion rates depend upon the nature of the statistical study).  However, it looks like it might be far less lethal than what we have seen thus far.  If true, this appears to be a very lucky turn of events for the human race and for me in particular.  It is likely my heart will give out before the virus kills me.  How fortunate I am.  I can feel my heart as I write.  It’s like a Mexican chicken slowly dying in a single wire cage packed with fifty other chickens on a Mexican truck traveling through the night.  

Oh well …  everyone has problems. 

If it had gone differently and Omicron had been fifty times as contagious and fifty times more lethal (totally possible) then we would not be worrying about supply chain issues or whether or not we could gather for Christmas with family and friends.  If it was fifty times more lethal, then we would be facing the reality of 75,000 daily deaths in the United States and about 175,000 deaths per day worldwide.  If that rate kept up for a year, we would have approximately 27,000,000 US deaths and 64,000,000 worldwide. Given the West’s abysmal track record on the equitable distribution of vaccines and other medicines and the vicious political split between rightwing idiots and scientific progress, it would seem that the double whammy of a highly lethal and highly contagious variant would rapidly outstrip most public health interventions.  So, the numbers I am estimating are not out of the question.  It only takes the right kind of variant to make it happen. Omicron might not be the one, but there will be others.

If it does happen, our old lives of working for a paycheck and then spending it on consumer items would be finished.  Working out at the gym, going to school, worrying about the Fed and interest rates, would all fall away. The developing world would explode in flames.  We might survive, but living for what?  In what form?  Would we still value loyalty, music, art, having kids … would we still say that love is the answer?  What of the gods?  Where the hell are the gods?  The final devil might appear.  Would he set off the use of nuclear weapons?  Maybe.  Things, as I’m sure you know, can always get worse. 

We, evidently, have dodged a bullet for now.  Let us hold our collective breath and see if our monumental stupidity and insanity will finally destroy everything.  I believe in probability.  It is my religion and as a card counter and rounder, this game doesn’t look so good to me.  Somebody is cheating and it’s not me. 

I have one other advantage.  I’ve seen people drop dead in the desert, and the shitty little towns, and high in the mountains.  Just drop dead in one instant.  Bacteria and viruses killed them. It has forever changed me and given me good reason to believe that all of this could happen.  We are so fragile.

Merry Christmas.  I mean that.  Merry Christmas.  I’ve always loved Christmas, even though I don’t believe in Jesus.  Remember, I believe in probability.  I believe in you.  Like I’ve said before, we all have to believe in something or else what’s the point?

Merry Christmas!

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